Jess Hemerly interview with Pesco on MacTribe

Frequent BB contributor Jess Hemerly interviewed me for MacTribe, a new site for and about Mac users. In Part I, I talk about Institute for the Future and MAKE:. I hope you enjoy it! From the interview:

How do you come up with your forecasts?
Nobody can predict the future, and we always tell people, "Don't believe anyone who says they can, especially if they're from California." The good news is that you don't have to predict the future. We look for what we call "weak signals." A weak signal could be a business deal; it could be a scientific paper that was published, or some kind of innovation or scientific breakthrough. When you look at these weak signals and combine them together as a complex ecology of interesting points, it's possible to find patterns and intersections and get a sense of where things may be headed. The future is a cone of uncertainty. The close you are, the clearer things are. But the further out you look, the foggier, the more uncertain, the future becomes. Using a variety of methodologies, we try to narrow that cone of uncertainty.

Link (Thanks, Jess!)